TL;DR
This paper reviews various interpretations of 'Probability' and explores different perspectives on 'Individual Risk,' highlighting its complexity and proposing pragmatic ways to better understand it.
Contribution
It provides a comprehensive survey of probability concepts and examines group and individualist approaches to defining 'Individual Risk,' offering new insights and pragmatic suggestions.
Findings
Distinction between groupist and individualist probability views
Analysis of 'group to individual' and 'individual to group' approaches
Recognition of the subtlety and elusiveness of 'Individual Risk'
Abstract
We survey a variety of possible explications of the term "Individual Risk." These in turn are based on a variety of interpretations of "Probability," including Classical, Enumerative, Frequency, Formal, Metaphysical, Personal, Propensity, Chance and Logical conceptions of Probability, which we review and compare. We distinguish between "groupist" and "individualist" understandings of Probability, and explore both "group to individual" (G2i) and "individual to group" (i2G) approaches to characterising Individual Risk. Although in the end that concept remains subtle and elusive, some pragmatic suggestions for progress are made.
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