When do microscopic assumptions determine the outcome in evolutionary game dynamics?

TL;DR

This paper investigates how microscopic assumptions in evolutionary game dynamics influence macro-level outcomes, revealing that only specific process pairs yield consistent results across various games and selection intensities.

Contribution

It demonstrates that microscopic models are not interchangeable and identifies unique process pairs that produce identical macroscopic outcomes in evolutionary dynamics.

Findings

Only one pair of microscopic processes yields consistent outcomes.

Micro-level assumptions critically affect macro-level results.

Arbitrary micro-level choices can lead to different evolutionary predictions.

Abstract

The modelling of evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations requires microscopic processes that determine how strategies spread. The exact details of these processes are often chosen without much further consideration. Different types of microscopic models, including in particular fitness-based selection rules and imitation-based dynamics, are often used as if they were interchangeable. We challenge this view and investigate how robust these choices on the micro-level really are. Focusing on a key macroscopic observable, the probability for a single mutant to take over a population of wild-type individuals, we show that there is a unique pair of a fitness-based process and an imitation process leading to identical outcomes for arbitrary games and for all intensities of selection. This highlights the perils of making arbitrary choices at the micro-level without regard of the consequences at the macro-level.