Bayesian semiparametric modelling of contraceptive behavior in India via sequential logistic regressions

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian semiparametric model to analyze and interpret the complex contraceptive choices in India, capturing policy effects and population heterogeneity within a unified framework.

Contribution

It develops a novel Bayesian semiparametric approach using sequential logistic regressions to provide a comprehensive view of family planning policies and contraceptive behaviors in India.

Findings

Provides a global overview of contraceptive choices

Identifies key factors influencing method selection

Models policy impacts on population segments

Abstract

Family planning has been characterized by highly different strategic programs in India, including method-specific contraceptive targets, coercive sterilization, and more recent target-free approaches. These major changes in family planning policies over time have motivated a considerable interest towards assessing the effectiveness of the different programs, while understanding which subsets of the population have not been properly addressed. Current studies consider specific aspects of the above policies, including, for example, the factors associated with the choice of alternative contraceptive methods other than sterilization, for women using contraceptives. Although these analyses produce relevant insights, they fail to provide a global overview of the different family planning policies, and the determinants underlying the contraceptive choices. Motivated by this consideration, we propose a Bayesian semiparametric model relying on a reparameterization of the multinomial probability mass function via a set of conditional Bernoulli choices. The sequential binary structure is defined to be consistent with the current family planning policies in India, and coherent with a reasonable process characterizing the contraceptive choices. This combination of flexible representations and careful reparameterizations allows a broader and interpretable overview of the different policies and contraceptive preferences in India, within a single model.