The Dengue risk transmission during the FIFA 2014 World Cup

TL;DR

This study assesses dengue transmission risk during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil using climate-driven models and historical data, concluding that the risk was low but not negligible, and unlikely to cause outbreaks during the event.

Contribution

It provides an early warning assessment of dengue risk during a major international event using climate models and historical data analysis.

Findings

Dengue risk was low during the World Cup months.

Main dengue season in Brazil had passed before the event.

Risk remained in northern and northeastern Brazil but was not high enough for alarm.

Abstract

Dengue is a viral infection that can produce a severe fever and symptoms that may require hospitalization. It is transmitted between humans by the urban-adapted, day-biting Aedes mosquitoes and is therefore a particular problem in towns and cities. To explore this risk, one has assessed the potential levels of exposure by a climate-driven model for dengue risk transmission in Brazil and records of its seasonal variation at the key sites. Like the weather, it is unworkable to forecast the precise situation with regard to dengue in Brazil in 2014. One can, however, make informed guesses on the basis of averaged records of dengue in previous years. For the areas around the World Cup stadiums, these records show that the main dengue season will have passed before the World Cup is held in June and July. Unfortunately, the risk remains, even this is low but not negliegible, during these months in the Brazilian north and northeast. But, in fact, the risk of an outbreak of dengue fever during the upcoming soccer World Cup in Brazil is not serious enough to warrant a high alert in the host cities, according to a reliable early warning system for the disease.