Future climate trends from a first-difference atmospheric carbon dioxide regression model involving emissions scenarios for business as usual and for peak fossil fuel

TL;DR

This study models future climate trends based on the correlation between atmospheric CO2 changes and temperature, suggesting that peak fossil fuel scenarios could lead to temperature decreases and impact climate policy decisions.

Contribution

It introduces a regression model linking first-difference atmospheric CO2 to temperature, analyzing future scenarios including peak fossil fuel, which is a novel approach.

Findings

Temperature rise slows under business-as-usual scenarios.

Peak fossil fuel scenarios may lead to temperature decreases.

Climate disaster trends peaked in 2005 and are decreasing.

Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the present to 2050, for a comprehensive range of future global fossil fuel energy use scenarios. The results show that even for a business-as-usual (the mid-level IPCC) fossil fuel use estimate, global surface temperature will rise at a slower rate than for the recent period 1960-2000. Concerning peak fossil fuel, for the most common scenario the currently observed (1998-2013)temperature plateau will turn into a decrease. The observed trend to date for temperature is compared with that for global climate disasters: these peaked in 2005 and are notably decreasing. The temperature and disaster results taken together are consistent with either a reduced business-as-usual fossil fuel use scenario into the future, or a peak fossil fuel scenario, but not with the standard business-as-usual scenario. If the future follows a peak fossil fuel pathway, a markedly decreasing trend in global surface temperature should become apparent over the next few years. If entertained, these results are evidence that the climate problem may require less preventative action. If so, the same evidence is support for the case that the peak fossil fuel problem does require preventative action. This action is the same as it would have been for climate - the rapid transition to a predominantly renewable global energy system.