Rational Counterfactuals

TL;DR

This paper introduces the concept of rational counterfactuals, a method to identify counterfactual scenarios that maximize the likelihood of desired outcomes, aiding rational decision making.

Contribution

It develops a formal theory of rational counterfactuals and applies it to identify key variables leading to peace.

Findings

Identifies variables influencing peace: Allies, Contingency, Distance, Major Power, Capability, Democracy, Economic Interdependency.

Provides a framework for rational decision making based on counterfactual analysis.

Demonstrates application of the theory to real-world political scenarios.

Abstract

This paper introduces the concept of rational countefactuals which is an idea of identifying a counterfactual from the factual (whether perceived or real) that maximizes the attainment of the desired consequent. In counterfactual thinking if we have a factual statement like: Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and consequently George Bush declared war on Iraq then its counterfactuals is: If Saddam Hussein did not invade Kuwait then George Bush would not have declared war on Iraq. The theory of rational counterfactuals is applied to identify the antecedent that gives the desired consequent necessary for rational decision making. The rational countefactual theory is applied to identify the values of variables Allies, Contingency, Distance, Major Power, Capability, Democracy, as well as Economic Interdependency that gives the desired consequent Peace.