Optimistic Risk Perception in the Temporal Difference error Explains the Relation between Risk-taking, Gambling, Sensation-seeking and Low Fear

TL;DR

This paper uses computational models to show how optimistic risk perception influences gambling, sensation-seeking, and fear, revealing mechanisms behind risky behaviors and their persistence.

Contribution

It introduces a novel computational approach using TDRL to differentiate types of optimism in risk perception and their effects on risk-taking behaviors.

Findings

Optimism in risk perception prevents gambling in healthy individuals.

Outcome optimism leads to persistent gambling and high sensation-seeking.

Overly optimistic risk perception correlates with low fear and high risk-taking.

Abstract

Understanding the affective, cognitive and behavioural processes involved in risk taking is essential for treatment and for setting environmental conditions to limit damage. Using Temporal Difference Reinforcement Learning (TDRL) we computationally investigated the effect of optimism in risk perception in a variety of goal-oriented tasks. Optimism in risk perception was studied by varying the calculation of the Temporal Difference error, i.e., delta, in three ways: realistic (stochastically correct), optimistic (assuming action control), and overly optimistic (assuming outcome control). We show that for the gambling task individuals with 'healthy' perception of control, i.e., action optimism, do not develop gambling behaviour while individuals with 'unhealthy' perception of control, i.e., outcome optimism, do. We show that high intensity of sensations and low levels of fear co-occur due to optimistic risk perception. We found that overly optimistic risk perception (outcome optimism) results in risk taking and in persistent gambling behaviour in addition to high intensity of sensations. We discuss how our results replicate risk-taking related phenomena.