Modeling contaminant intrusion in water distribution networks based on D numbers

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method using D numbers, an extension of Dempster-Shafer theory, to better model uncertainty and assess contaminant intrusion risks in water distribution networks.

Contribution

It proposes a new approach based on D numbers that relaxes the exclusivity assumption of Dempster-Shafer theory for more realistic uncertainty modeling.

Findings

Effective risk estimation in water networks demonstrated

Improved modeling of uncertain information achieved

Potential for broader applications in risk assessment

Abstract

Efficient modeling on uncertain information plays an important role in estimating the risk of contaminant intrusion in water distribution networks. Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is one of the most commonly used methods. However, the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory has some hypotheses including the exclusive property of the elements in the frame of discernment, which may not be consistent with the real world. In this paper, based on a more effective representation of uncertainty, called D numbers, a new method that allows the elements in the frame of discernment to be non-exclusive is proposed. To demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, we apply it to the water distribution networks to estimate the risk of contaminant intrusion.