What is the `relevant population' in Bayesian forensic inference?

TL;DR

This paper explores the ambiguous concept of 'relevant population' in Bayesian forensic inference, aiming to clarify its meaning and provide guidance on its selection across different forensic technologies.

Contribution

It offers a general analysis of the 'relevant population' concept, applicable to DNA profiling and speaker recognition, with the goal of clarifying its definition and selection.

Findings

Clarifies the ambiguous concept of 'relevant population' in forensic Bayesian inference

Provides a framework applicable to multiple forensic technologies

Highlights the importance of proper population selection in forensic evidence interpretation

Abstract

In works discussing the Bayesian paradigm for presenting forensic evidence in court, the concept of a `relevant population' is often mentioned, without a clear definition of what is meant, and without recommendations of how to select such populations. This note is to try to better understand this concept. Our analysis is intended to be general enough to be applicable to different forensic technologies and we shall consider both DNA profiling and speaker recognition as examples.