Two-state filtering for joint state-parameter estimation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a two-stage filtering method combining particle filtering and ensemble Kalman filtering for joint state and non-additive parameter estimation, outperforming traditional state augmentation in complex models.

Contribution

The paper proposes a novel two-stages filtering approach that effectively estimates non-additive parameters alongside states, addressing limitations of existing augmentation techniques.

Findings

Successfully estimates parameters in Lorenz-96 model

Reduces uncertainty in state estimation

Outperforms state augmentation method

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for simultaneous estimation of the state and unknown parameters in a sequential data assimilation framework. The state augmentation technique, in which the state vector is augmented by the model parameters, has been investigated in many previous studies and some success with this technique has been reported in the case where model parameters are additive. However, many geophysical or climate models contains non-additive parameters such as those arising from physical parametrization of sub-grid scale processes, in which case the state augmentation technique may become ineffective since its inference about parameters from partially observed states based on the cross covariance between states and parameters is inadequate if states and parameters are not linearly correlated. In this paper, we propose a two-stages filtering technique that runs particle filtering (PF) to estimate parameters while updating the state estimate using Ensemble Kalman filter (ENKF; these two "sub-filters" interact. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Lorenz-96 system, where the forcing is parameterized and the amplitude and phase of the forcing are to be estimated jointly with the states. The proposed method is shown to be capable of estimating these model parameters with a high accuracy as well as reducing uncertainty while the state augmentation technique fails.