Analysis of Hashrate-Based Double Spending

TL;DR

This paper examines the quantitative aspects of Bitcoin's blockchain security, analyzing the stochastic processes behind double-spending attacks and their success probabilities to clarify attack risks.

Contribution

It provides a detailed probabilistic analysis of hash rate-based double-spending attacks, clarifying how attack success depends on network parameters.

Findings

Success probability of double-spending attacks varies with hash rate and confirmation depth.

Quantitative models help understand attack risks and inform security measures.

Analysis clarifies the relationship between network parameters and attack vulnerability.

Abstract

Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized digital currency. Its main technical innovation is the use of a blockchain and hash-based proof of work to synchronize transactions and prevent double-spending the currency. While the qualitative nature of this system is well understood, there is widespread confusion about its quantitative aspects and how they relate to attack vectors and their countermeasures. In this paper we take a look at the stochastic processes underlying typical attacks and their resulting probabilities of success.