Reliability measures for indexed semi-Markov chains applied to wind energy production

TL;DR

This paper models wind speed using an indexed semi-Markov chain to compute reliability, availability, and maintainability of wind turbines, validated with real energy production data from Italy.

Contribution

It introduces a novel semi-Markov chain model for wind speed to assess wind turbine dependability measures with real-world validation.

Findings

Model accurately predicts energy production

Reliability measures align with observed data

Provides a new approach for wind farm planning

Abstract

The computation of the dependability measures is a crucial point in the planning and development of a wind farm. In this paper we address the issue of energy production by wind turbine by using an indexed semi-Markov chain as a model of wind speed. We present the mathematical model, we describe the data and technical characteristics of a commercial wind turbine (Aircon HAWT-10kW). We show how to compute some of the main dependability measures such as reliability, availability and maintainability functions. We compare the results of the model with real energy production obtained from data available in the Lastem station (Italy) and sampled every 10 minutes.