Quantifying the loss of information in source attribution problems using the adjoint method in global models of atmospheric chemical transport

TL;DR

This paper investigates how effectively global atmospheric models can identify pollution sources over time, revealing a critical 2-day window beyond which source reconstruction becomes unreliable due to numerical diffusion.

Contribution

It introduces a quantitative method using the adjoint approach to assess the loss of information in source attribution within global chemical transport models.

Findings

Reconstruction accuracy drops significantly after 2 days.

Estimated effective length scale of 1700 km for source detection.

Method applicable to other regional and global models.

Abstract

It is of crucial importance to be able to identify the location of atmospheric pollution sources in our planet. Global models of atmospheric transport in combination with diverse Earth observing systems are a natural choice to achieve this goal. It is shown that the ability to successfully reconstruct the location and magnitude of an instantaneous source in global chemical transport models (CTMs) decreases rapidly as a function of the time interval between the pollution release and the observation time. A simple way to quantitatively characterize this phenomenon is proposed based on the effective -undesired- numerical diffusion present in current Eulerian CTMs and verified using idealized numerical experiments. The approach presented consists of using the adjoint-based optimization method in a state-of-the-art CTM, GEOS-Chem, to reconstruct the location and magnitude of a realistic pollution plume for multiple time scales. The findings obtained from these numerical experiments suggest a time scale of 2 days after which the accuracy of the adjoint-based optimization methodology is compromised considerably in current global CTMs. In conjunction with the mean atmospheric velocity, the aforementioned time scale leads to an estimate of a length scale of about 1700km, downwind from the source, beyond which measurements, in conjunction with current global CTMs, may not be successfully utilized to reconstruct continuous-in-time sources. The approach presented here can be utilized to characterize the capabilities and limitations of adjoint-based optimization inversions in other regional and global Eulerian CTMs.