One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Coming?

TL;DR

This study examines the double peaks in solar cycles, particularly Cycle 24, by analyzing sunspot group data to understand their behavior and predict the cycle's maximum timing.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new approach by separating sunspot groups into small and large categories to explain double maxima in solar cycles and predicts a double maximum for Cycle 24.

Findings

Double maxima may result from different behaviors of small and large sunspot groups.

Cycle 24's maximum is predicted to occur after 2011.

Historical data shows maxima last about 2.9 years.

Abstract

We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot group data since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, H, classes by the Zurich classification], and the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated small and large sunspot group numbers, their sunspot numbers [SSN] and Zurich numbers [Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of the Cycle 24 should be later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is coming for Solar Cycle 24.