Cross-Correlation of Photovoltaic Output Fluctuation in Power System Operation for Large-Scale Photovoltaic Integration

TL;DR

This study examines the cross-correlation of photovoltaic output fluctuations across Japan to improve grid integration strategies and optimize thermal plant scheduling, considering forecast errors and policy implications.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis of PV output correlations using principal component analysis and random matrix theory, and applies this to optimize power system operation and policy.

Findings

Cross-correlation coefficients vary regionally and impact forecast accuracy.

Incorporating cross-correlation data improves thermal plant scheduling efficiency.

Estimated grid integration costs inform policy discussions.

Abstract

We analyzed the cross-correlation of Photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross-correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross-correlations. Then operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using our unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The cost for grid integration of PV system was also estimated. Finally, validity of the concept of "local production for local consumption of renewable energy" and alternative policy implications were also discussed.