Population of SOHO/STEREO Kreutz Sungrazers and the Arrival of Comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy)

TL;DR

This study analyzes the properties and arrival patterns of SOHO/STEREO Kreutz sungrazers from 2004 to 2013, revealing a swarm of bright comets preceding C/2011 W3 and indicating a future increase in spectacular Kreutz comets.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed analysis of the population dynamics and potential precursors of major Kreutz sungrazers, highlighting a fragmented precursor to C/2011 W3.

Findings

Peak arrival rate of bright sungrazers in late 2010 and early 2011.

Population peaked about one year before C/2011 W3.

Bright sungrazers' orbits differ from C/2011 W3, indicating independence.

Abstract

We examine properties of the population of SOHO/STEREO (dwarf) Kreutz sungrazing comets from 2004 to 2013, including the arrival rates, peculiar gaps, and a potential relationship to the spectacular comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy). Selection effects, influencing the observed distribution, are largely absent among bright dwarf sungrazers, whose temporal sequence implies the presence of a swarm, with the objects brighter at maximum than apparent magnitude 3 arriving at a peak rate of about 4.6 per year in late 2010, while those brighter than magnitude 2 at a peak rate of about 4.3 per year in early 2011, both a few times the pre-swarm rate. The entire population of SOHO/STEREO Kreutz sungrazers also peaked about one year before the appearance of C/2011 W3. Orbital data show, however, that all bright dwarf sungrazers moved in paths similar to that of comet C/1843 D1, deviating 10 deg or more from the orbit of C/2011 W3 in the angular elements. The evidence from the swarm and the overall elevated arrival rates suggests the existence of a fragmented sizable sungrazer that shortly preceded C/2011 W3 but was independent of it. On the other hand, these findings represent another warning signal that the expected 21st-century cluster of spectacular Kreutz comets is on its way to perihelion, to arrive during the coming decades. It is only in this sense that we find a parallel link between C/2011 W3 and the spikes in the population of SOHO/STEREO Kreutz sungrazers.