Prediction Capabilities of VLF/LF Emission as the Main Precursor of Earthquake

TL;DR

This paper explores the potential of VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions as reliable precursors for earthquake prediction, proposing a methodology to validate their predictive capabilities based on models of fault formation and electromagnetic contours.

Contribution

It introduces a new methodology for testing the hypothesis that VLF/LF emissions can serve as primary earthquake precursors, supported by models of fault and electromagnetic contour formation.

Findings

VLF/LF emissions are linked to earthquake preparation phases.

A proposed methodology for validating electromagnetic precursors.

Models suggest a harmonic relationship between fault formation and electromagnetic signals.

Abstract

Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this phenomenon is more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. Hypothetically, in case of availability of adequate methodological grounds, in the nearest future, earth VLF/LF electromagnetic emission might be declared as the main precursor of earthquake. In particular, permanent monitoring of frequency spectrum of earth electromagnetic emission generated in the earthquake preparation period might turn out very useful with the view of prediction of large (M 5) inland earthquakes. The present paper offers a scheme of the methodology according to which the reality of the above given hypothesis can be checked up. To prove the prediction capabilities of earth electromagnetic emission we have used avalanche-like unstable model of fault formation and an analogous model of electromagnetic contour, synthesis of which, according to our opinion, is rather harmonious.