Social Judgment Theory Based Model On Opinion Formation, Polarization And Evolution

TL;DR

This paper introduces a social judgment theory-based model for opinion formation that explains how opinions polarize and evolve, revealing phase transitions and punctuated equilibria in public opinion dynamics.

Contribution

It extends existing opinion models by integrating social judgment theory, demonstrating phase transitions and punctuated equilibria in opinion evolution within a fully connected network.

Findings

Opinions cluster around extremes or moderates forming three phases.

First-order phase transitions occur with slow parameter changes.

Punctuated equilibria can emerge even in fully connected networks.

Abstract

The dynamical origin of opinion polarization in the real world is an interesting topic physical scientists may help to understand. To properly model the dynamics, the theory must be fully compatible with findings by social psychologists on microscopic opinion change. Here we introduce a generic model of opinion formation with homogeneous agents based on the well-known social judgment theory in social psychology by extending a similar model proposed by Jager and Amblard. The agents' opinions will eventually cluster around extreme and/or moderate opinions forming three phases in a two-dimensional parameter space that describes the microscopic opinion response of the agents. The dynamics of this model can be qualitatively understood by mean-field analysis. More importantly, first-order phase transition in opinion distribution is observed by evolving the system under a slow change in the system parameters, showing that punctuated equilibria in public opinion can occur even in a fully connected social network.