Using the Dipolar and Quadrupolar Moments to Improve Solar-Cycle Predictions Based on the Polar Magnetic Fields

TL;DR

This paper proposes a method to improve solar cycle predictions by separately analyzing each hemisphere's magnetic field, utilizing dipolar and quadrupolar moments during solar minimum for more accurate forecasts.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach that enhances solar cycle prediction accuracy by incorporating hemisphere-specific magnetic field moments.

Findings

Improved prediction accuracy using hemisphere-specific magnetic data.

Utilization of dipolar and quadrupolar moments during solar minimum.

Enhanced understanding of magnetic field contributions to solar cycle variability.

Abstract

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions, leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. Here we show that cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere, taking advantage of information about both the dipolar and quadrupolar moments of the solar magnetic field during minimum.