Beginning of activity in 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and predictions for 2014/5

TL;DR

This study analyzes the activity onset of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko using archival and new data, predicts its behavior during 2014/5, and introduces a novel application of difference image analysis for comet observation.

Contribution

It applies difference image analysis to comet data and produces a consistent, high-quality lightcurve to predict comet activity during 2014/5.

Findings

Comet was active around November 2007 at 4.3 AU from the Sun.

Predicted activity onset in March 2014 at similar distance.

Comet has a higher dust-to-gas ratio than average.

Abstract

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko was selected in 2003 as the new target of the Rosetta mission. It has since been the subject of a detailed campaign of observations to characterise its nucleus and activity. Here we present previously unpublished data taken around the start of activity of the comet in 2007/8, before its last perihelion passage. We constrain the time of the start of activity, and combine this with other data taken throughout the comet's orbit to make predictions for its likely behaviour during 2014/5 while Rosetta is operating. A considerable difficulty in observing 67P during the past years has been its position against crowded fields towards the Galactic centre for much of the time. The 2007/8 data presented here were particularly difficult, and the comet will once again be badly placed for Earth-based observations in 2014/5. We make use of the difference image analysis (DIA) technique, which is commonly used in variable star and exoplanet research, to remove background sources and extract images of the comet. In addition, we reprocess a large quantity of archival images of 67P covering its full orbit, to produce a heliocentric lightcurve. By using consistent reduction, measurement and calibration techniques we generate a remarkably clean lightcurve, which can be used to measure a brightness-distance relationship and to predict the future brightness of the comet. We determine that the comet was active around November 2007, at a pre-perihelion distance from the Sun of 4.3 AU. The comet will reach this distance, and probably become active again, in March 2014. We find that the dust brightness can be well described by Af\rho \propto r^-3.2 pre-perihelion and r^-3.4 post-perihelion, and that the comet has a higher dust-to-gas ratio than average. A model fit to the photometric data suggests that only a small fraction (1.4%) of the surface is active.