Extracting information from the signature of a financial data stream

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates how the signature of financial data streams can be used to classify market behaviors and predict features, providing a non-parametric approach that captures vital information efficiently.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the signature transform to financial data analysis, enabling effective classification and prediction without traditional statistical models.

Findings

Signature coefficients can classify market data effectively.

The method detects atypical market behavior in crude oil futures.

It distinguishes between different trade execution algorithms on index futures.

Abstract

Market events such as order placement and order cancellation are examples of the complex and substantial flow of data that surrounds a modern financial engineer. New mathematical techniques, developed to describe the interactions of complex oscillatory systems (known as the theory of rough paths) provides new tools for analysing and describing these data streams and extracting the vital information. In this paper we illustrate how a very small number of coefficients obtained from the signature of financial data can be sufficient to classify this data for subtle underlying features and make useful predictions. This paper presents financial examples in which we learn from data and then proceed to classify fresh streams. The classification is based on features of streams that are specified through the coordinates of the signature of the path. At a mathematical level the signature is a faithful transform of a multidimensional time series. (Ben Hambly and Terry Lyons \cite{uniqueSig}), Hao Ni and Terry Lyons \cite{NiLyons} introduced the possibility of its use to understand financial data and pointed to the potential this approach has for machine learning and prediction. We evaluate and refine these theoretical suggestions against practical examples of interest and present a few motivating experiments which demonstrate information the signature can easily capture in a non-parametric way avoiding traditional statistical modelling of the data. In the first experiment we identify atypical market behaviour across standard 30-minute time buckets sampled from the WTI crude oil future market (NYMEX). The second and third experiments aim to characterise the market "impact" of and distinguish between parent orders generated by two different trade execution algorithms on the FTSE 100 Index futures market listed on NYSE Liffe.