Optimal Design and Analysis of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Chart for Exponential Data

TL;DR

This paper optimizes the EWMA chart for detecting parameter changes in exponential data, deriving exact performance measures and demonstrating its competitiveness with established procedures.

Contribution

It provides a closed-form solution for optimal smoothing and headstart parameters of the EWMA chart in change detection scenarios.

Findings

Optimized EWMA chart performs nearly as well as Shiryaev--Roberts procedures.

Exact formulas for performance measures are derived using integral equations.

Optimized parameters improve detection speed in exponential data models.

Abstract

We study optimal design of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) chart by a proper choice of the smoothing factor and the initial value (headstart) of the decision statistic. The particular problem addressed is that of quickest detection of an abrupt change in the parameter of a discrete-time exponential model. Both pre- and post-change parameter values are assumed known, but the change-point is not known. For this change-point detection scenario, we examine the performance of the conventional one-sided EWMA chart with respect to two optimality criteria: Pollak's minimax criterion associated with the maximal conditional expected delay to detection and Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup associated with the stationary expected delay to detection. Using the integral-equations approach, we derive the exact closed-form formulae for all of the required performance measures. Based on these formulae we find the optimal smoothing factor and headstart by solving the corresponding two bivariate constraint optimization problems. Finally, the performance of the optimized EWMA chart is compared against that of the Shiryaev--Roberts--$r$ procedure in the minimax setting, and against that of the original Shiryaev--Roberts procedure in the multi-cyclic setting. The main conclusion is that the EWMA chart, when fully optimized, turns out to be a very competitive procedure, with performance nearly indistinguishable from that of the known-to-be-best Shiryaev--Roberts--$r$ and Shiryaev--Roberts procedures.