Outbreak Patterns of the Novel Avian Influenza (H7N9)

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal outbreak patterns of the H7N9 avian influenza in east China, revealing network properties and heterogeneity in risk distribution, aiding early-stage disease spread analysis.

Contribution

It introduces a novel empirical and modeling approach to analyze outbreak patterns and network properties using limited early-stage data.

Findings

Identified two-section-power-law distribution in outbreak network edges.

Revealed heterogeneous risk distribution across islands in east China.

Demonstrated method's applicability to early outbreak analysis with limited data.

Abstract

The attack of novel avian influenza (H7N9) in east China caused a serious health crisis and public panic. In this paper, we empirically analyze the onset patterns of human cases of the novel avian influenza and observe several spatial and temporal properties that are similar to other infective diseases. More deeply, using the empirical analysis and modeling studies, we find that the spatio-temporal network that connects the cities with human cases along the order of outbreak timing emerges two-section-power-law edge-length distribution, indicating the picture that several islands with higher and heterogeneous risk straggle in east China. The proposed method is applicable to the analysis on the spreading situation in early stage of disease outbreak using quite limited dataset.