The predictability of the Hirsch index evolution

TL;DR

This paper investigates the evolution of the h-index, revealing that it is primarily influenced by citations to past work rather than new achievements, questioning its effectiveness in academic evaluations.

Contribution

It provides an analysis showing the inert behavior of the h-index over time and discusses its implications for academic decision-making.

Findings

h-index evolution is dominated by citations to previous work

h-index shows inert behavior over several years

raises questions about its use in academic evaluations

Abstract

The h-index can be used as a predictor of itself. However, the evolution of the h-index with time is shown in the present investigation to be dominated for several years by citations to previous publications rather than by new scientific achievements. This inert behaviour of the h-index raises questions, whether the h-index can be used profitably in academic appointment processes or for the allocation of research resources.