Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission

TL;DR

This paper introduces a method to detect trend changes in cross-border epidemic transmission using epidemiological models, assessing public health intervention effectiveness through time series analysis of reported cases.

Contribution

It develops a novel approach for identifying change points in epidemic transmission dynamics within a multi-region framework, linking these to public health alerts.

Findings

WHO alert in 2003 reduced travel-related transmission risk

No change in travel behavior during 2009 flu pandemic

Method effectively detects intervention impacts in epidemic data

Abstract

A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the implemented public health intervention in managing infectious travelers across borders from a time series of the number of new cases reported in multiple geographical regions. It is found that the change point of the probability of travel movements was one week after the WHO worldwide alert on the SARS outbreak in 2003. The alert was effective in managing infectious travelers. On the other hand, it is found that the probability of travel movements did not change at all for the flu pandemic in 2009. The pandemic did not affect potential travelers despite the WHO alert.