No early warning signals for stochastic transitions: insights from large deviation theory
Carl Boettiger, Alan Hastings
TL;DR
This paper discusses the limitations of early warning signals for stochastic transitions, using insights from large deviation theory to argue that such signals may not reliably predict stochastic switching events.
Contribution
It provides a theoretical critique of early warning signals for stochastic transitions based on large deviation theory, challenging previous assumptions.
Findings
Early warning signals may not be reliable for stochastic transitions
Large deviation theory offers insights into the unpredictability of stochastic switching
The paper questions the effectiveness of current early warning methods
Abstract
A reply to Drake (2013) "Early warning signals of stochastic switching" http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.0686
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