Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

TL;DR

This paper compares Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities methods for handling inconsistent expert judgments, demonstrating that negative probabilities offer superior normative power in the analyzed example.

Contribution

It introduces a simple example of inconsistent information and evaluates three approaches, highlighting the advantages of negative probabilities over Bayesian and quantum-like methods.

Findings

Negative probabilities provide better normative power in the example.

Bayesian and quantum-like approaches are less effective for inconsistent judgments.

The paper offers a comparative analysis of three different decision-making frameworks.

Abstract

In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.