Constraints on Planet Occurrence around Nearby Mid-to-Late M Dwarfs from the MEarth Project

TL;DR

The MEarth Project's four-year survey of nearby mid-to-late M dwarfs aimed to detect transiting planets, revealing constraints on planet occurrence rates and suggesting strategies to improve detection of smaller, cooler exoplanets.

Contribution

This study provides the first detailed sensitivity analysis of MEarth, compares its findings with Kepler data, and proposes an optimized observing strategy for future planet detections.

Findings

MEarth should have detected 0.05-0.36 planets/year for 2-4 Earth radii planets.

Assuming fixed occurrence distribution matches the detection of GJ1214b.

Warm Neptune-sized planets occur at a rate of <0.15 per star around late M dwarfs.

Abstract

The MEarth Project is a ground-based photometric survey to find planets transiting the closest and smallest main-sequence stars. In its first four years, MEarth discovered one transiting exoplanet, the 2.7 Earth radius planet GJ1214b. Here, we answer an outstanding question: in light of the bounty of small planets transiting small stars uncovered by the Kepler mission, should MEarth have found more than just one planet so far? We estimate MEarth's ensemble sensitivity to exoplanets by performing end-to-end simulations of 1.25 million observations of 988 nearby mid-to-late M dwarfs, gathered by MEarth between October 2008 and June 2012. For 2-4 Earth radius planets, we compare this sensitivity to results from Kepler and find that MEarth should have found planets at a rate of 0.05 - 0.36 planets/year in its first four years. As part of this analysis, we provide new analytic fits to the Kepler early M dwarf planet occurrence distribution. When extrapolating between Kepler's early M dwarfs and MEarth's mid-to-late M dwarfs, we find that assuming the planet occurrence distribution stays fixed with respect to planetary equilibrium temperature provides a good match to our detection of a planet with GJ1214b's observed properties. For larger planets, we find that the warm (600-700K), Neptune-sized (4 Earth radius) exoplanets that transit early M dwarfs like Gl436 and GJ3470 occur at a rate of <0.15/star (at 95% confidence) around MEarth's later M dwarf targets. We describe a strategy with which MEarth can increase its expected planet yield by 2.5X without new telescopes, by shifting its sensitivity toward the smaller and cooler exoplanets that Kepler has demonstrated to be abundant.