Helioseismology of Pre-Emerging Active Regions III: Statistical Analysis

TL;DR

This study uses helioseismic holography and discriminant analysis to identify subsurface signatures that precede active region emergence on the Sun, revealing a helioseismic precursor detectable at least a day prior.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed discriminant analysis approach to distinguish pre-emerging regions from non-emerging regions, highlighting a helioseismic precursor beyond surface magnetic field effects.

Findings

Surface magnetic field is the best discriminator before emergence.

A helioseismic precursor exists at least one day prior to active region emergence.

Helioseismic signals provide additional predictive information beyond surface magnetism.

Abstract

The subsurface properties of active regions prior to their appearance at the solar surface may shed light on the process of active region formation. Helioseismic holography has been applied to samples taken from two populations of regions on the Sun (pre-emergence and without emergence), each sample having over 100 members, that were selected to minimize systematic bias, as described in Paper I (Leka et al., 2012). Paper II (Birch et al., 2012) showed that there are statistically significant signatures in the average helioseismic properties that precede the formation of an active region. This paper describes a more detailed analysis of the samples of pre-emergence regions and regions without emergence, based on discriminant analysis. The property that is best able to distinguish the populations is found to be the surface magnetic field, even a day before the emergence time. However, after accounting for the correlations between the surface field and the quantities derived from helioseismology, there is still evidence of a helioseismic precursor to active region emergence that is present for at least a day prior to emergence.