How well can we guess theoretical uncertainties?

TL;DR

This paper investigates methods to estimate and improve the accuracy of theoretical predictions in Higgs production by completing perturbative series and quantifying uncertainties from missing higher orders.

Contribution

It applies mathematical series completion methods to perturbation theory, proposing a probabilistic approach to better estimate uncertainties in Higgs production predictions.

Findings

Series completion methods can improve prediction accuracy.

A probabilistic framework for uncertainty estimation is proposed.

Application to Higgs production demonstrates practical utility.

Abstract

The problem of estimating the effect of missing higher orders in perturbation theory is analyzed with emphasis in the application to Higgs production in gluon-gluon fusion. Well-known mathematical methods for an approximated completion of the perturbative series are applied with the goal to not truncate the series, but complete it in a well-defined way, so as to increase the accuracy - if not the precision - of theoretical predictions. The uncertainty arising from the use of the completion procedure is discussed and a recipe for constructing a corresponding probability distribution function is proposed.