Sensitivity Analysis in a Dengue Epidemiological Model

TL;DR

This paper presents a dengue epidemiological model combining SIR and ASI components, along with a sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters influencing disease transmission, aiding public health decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a combined SIR and ASI dengue model with a sensitivity analysis to evaluate parameter importance for disease spread.

Findings

Identified key parameters affecting dengue transmission

Provided a basic reproduction number for the model

Enhanced understanding of parameter influence on disease dynamics

Abstract

Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. Here a SIR (S for susceptible, I for infectious, R for recovered individuals) and ASI (A for the aquatic phase of the mosquito, S for susceptible and I for infectious mosquitoes) epidemiological model describing a dengue disease is presented, as well as the associated basic reproduction number. A sensitivity analysis of the epidemiological model is performed in order to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission.