Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

TL;DR

This paper compares simple topological models and complex physical flow models for risk analysis in electric power systems, evaluating if simplified measures can serve as effective surrogates to improve analysis efficiency.

Contribution

It introduces a classification of models from topological to physical flow-based and assesses their tradeoffs, proposing statistical methods to combine simpler models as surrogates.

Findings

Simplified topological measures can approximate physical flow models with acceptable accuracy.

Combining multiple topological measures improves surrogate model performance.

Using surrogates reduces computational time significantly for large-scale risk analysis.

Abstract

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist which can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Thus in this paper, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically-oriented models to advanced physical flow-based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to compare performances measures achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combination of models to use when analyzing large-scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.