Towards modelling cost and risks of infrequent events in the cargo screening process

TL;DR

This paper presents a simulation model of port immigration controls to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening policies and explores the challenges of modeling rare events through discrete event simulation.

Contribution

It introduces a simulation framework for assessing cargo screening policies and investigates the limitations of discrete event simulation in modeling infrequent, high-impact events.

Findings

Simulation model compares costs and benefits of screening policies

Identifies thresholds where rare events become difficult to simulate accurately

Provides insights into the limits of discrete event simulation for infrequent events

Abstract

We introduce a simulation model of the port of Calais with a focus on the operation of immigration controls. Our aim is to compare the cost and benefits of different screening policies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of discrete event simulation of rare events. When will they become 'too rare' for simulation to give meaningful results?