Validation of a Microsimulation of the Port of Dover

TL;DR

This paper discusses the challenges and methods for validating a microsimulation model of the Port of Dover, emphasizing calibration, data issues, and the importance of system intelligence placement for reliable traffic simulation.

Contribution

It introduces a framework for calibrating and validating port traffic microsimulations, highlighting issues like overcalibration and the impact of system design decisions.

Findings

Calibration issues can lead to overfitting in simulations.

Decision placement affects the reliability of simulation outputs.

Microsimulation can be a robust planning tool with proper validation.

Abstract

Modelling and simulating the traffic of heavily used but secure environments such as seaports and airports is of increasing importance. Errors made when simulating these environments can have long standing economic, social and environmental implications. This paper discusses issues and problems that may arise when designing a simulation strategy. Data for the Port is presented, methods for lightweight vehicle assessment that can be used to calibrate and validate simulations are also discussed along with a diagnosis of overcalibration issues. We show that decisions about where the intelligence lies in a system has important repercussions for the reliability of system statistics. Finally, conclusions are drawn about how microsimulations can be moved forward as a robust planning tool for the 21st century.