Waveform cross correlation for seismic monitoring of underground nuclear explosions. Part II: Synthetic master events

TL;DR

This study evaluates the use of synthetic seismic templates for detecting underground nuclear explosions, demonstrating comparable performance to real master events in aseismic regions, thus enhancing global monitoring capabilities.

Contribution

It introduces a method to effectively use synthetic seismic events as master templates, reducing reliance on real events for nuclear test monitoring.

Findings

Synthetic templates perform similarly to real masters in detection tasks.

Using synthetic masters can cover aseismic regions without significant loss of detection capability.

Synthetic seismograms depend on accurate modeling of source and path effects.

Abstract

Waveform cross correlation is an efficient tool for detection and characterization of seismic signals. The efficiency critically depends on the availability of master events. For the purposes of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, cross correlation can globally reduce the threshold monitoring by 0.3 to 0.4 magnitude units. In seismically active regions, the optimal choice of master events is straightforward. There are two approaches to populate the global grid in aseismic areas: the replication of real masters and synthetic seismograms calculated for seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System. Synthetic templates depend on the accuracy of shape and amplitude predictions controlled by focal depth and mechanism, source function, velocity structure and attenuation along the master/station path. As in Part I, we test three focal mechanisms (explosion, thrust fault, and actual Harvard CMT solution for one of the April 11, 2012 Sumatera aftershocks) and two velocity structures (ak135 and CRUST 2.0). Sixteen synthetic master events were distributed over a 1ox1o grid. We built five cross correlation standard event lists (XSEL) and compared detections and events with those built using the real and grand master events as well as with the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre. The XSELs built using the source of explosion and ak135 and the reverse fault with isotropic radiation pattern demonstrate the performance similar to that of the real and grand masters. Therefore, it is possible to cover all aseismic areas with synthetic masters without significant loss in seismic monitoring capabilities based on cross correlation.