The Statistical and Econometric Analysis of Asylum Application Trends and their relationship to GDP in the EEA

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how economic conditions in European Economic Area countries influence asylum application trends, using a time-varying econometric model to establish a link between GDP and asylum seeker preferences.

Contribution

It introduces a time-varying parameter multiplicative growth model to empirically examine the relationship between GDP and asylum applications across European countries.

Findings

Economic conditions influence asylum seeker preferences.

No regional bias in asylum seekers' expectations of favorable claims.

GDP fluctuations correlate with asylum application trends.

Abstract

The sharp decline in Ireland's economic performance in recent years has coincided with a recent fall in asylum applications. Simultaneously countries such as Switzerland are seeing increases in asylum numbers with evidence for greater numbers of Nigerian applicants, a group that have for some time been the largest nationality group applying in Ireland. A possible reason for this shift in asylum seeker preference is the general economic conditions here versus those in other European countries. In this paper we investigate whether this belief holds water. We model asylum applications as a function of GDP using a time varying parameter multiplicative growth model. Our results show there is an economic basis for asylum seeker preferences. We further show there is no regional basis for asylum seekers' expectation of a more favourable claim in the 'developed box' in central Europe as compared to countries on the so-called 'periphery'.