Effects of Plasma Drag on Low Earth Orbiting Satellites due to Heating of Earth's Atmosphere by Coronal Mass Ejections

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how coronal mass ejections heat Earth's atmosphere, increasing plasma drag on low Earth orbit satellites, and predicts orbital effects during upcoming solar maximum periods using historical data and solar activity forecasts.

Contribution

It models plasma drag effects on satellites caused by atmospheric heating from CMEs and forecasts orbital impacts during future solar maximums based on past data.

Findings

Plasma drag increases during solar maximum periods.

Atmospheric heating by CMEs significantly affects satellite orbits.

Predicted orbital decay correlates with solar activity levels.

Abstract

Solar events, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, heat up the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space environment. Due to this heating and expansion of the outer atmosphere by the energetic ultraviolet, X-ray and particles expelled from the sun, the low Earth-Orbiting satellites (LEOS) become vulnerable to an enhanced drag force by the ions and molecules of the expanded atmosphere. Out of various types of perturbations, Earth directed CMEs play the most significant role. They are more frequent and intense during the active (solar maximum) phase of the sun's approximately 11-year cycle. As we are approaching another solar maximum later in 2013, it may be instructive to analyse the effects of the past solar cycles on the orbiting satellites using the archival data of space environment parameters as indicators. In this paper, we compute the plasma drag on a model LEOS due to the atmospheric heating by CMEs and other solar events as a function of the solar parameters. Using the current forecast on the time and strength of the next solar maximum, we predict how an existing satellite orbit may be affected in the forthcoming years.