Combination versus sequential monotherapy in chronic HBV infection: a mathematical approach

TL;DR

This paper uses a mathematical model to compare combination and sequential monotherapy for chronic HBV, showing early combination therapy delays drug resistance emergence longer than sequential treatment.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic infection model with mutation dynamics and analyzes the benefits of early combination therapy over sequential monotherapy.

Findings

Early combination therapy delays drug resistance emergence.

Sequential monotherapy leads to earlier detection of resistant strains.

Mathematical analysis supports early combination as optimal strategy.

Abstract

Sequential monotherapy is the most widely used therapeutic approach in the treatment of HBV chronic infection. Unfortunately, under therapy, in some patients the hepatitis virus mutates and gives rise to variants which are drug resistant. We conjecture that combination therapy is able to delay drug resistance for a longer time than sequential monotherapy. To study the action of these two therapeutic approaches in the event of unknown mutations and to explain the emergence of drug resistance, we propose a stochastic model for the infection within a patient which is treated with two drugs, either sequentially or contemporaneously, and develops a two-step mutation which is resistant to both drugs. We study the deterministic approximation of our stochastic model and give a biological interpretation of its asymptotic behaviour. We compare the time when this new strain first reaches detectability in the serum viral load. Our results show that the best choice is to start an early combination therapy, which allows to stay drug-resistance free for a longer time.