An infectious disease model on empirical networks of human contact: bridging the gap between dynamic network data and contact matrices

TL;DR

This paper develops a new probabilistic contact matrix representation that effectively captures heterogeneity in human contact data, improving epidemic modeling accuracy while maintaining simplicity.

Contribution

It introduces a contact matrix of probability distributions that better approximates high-resolution contact data in epidemic simulations, balancing detail and transparency.

Findings

The average contact duration matrix underestimates epidemic size.

The probabilistic contact matrix accurately reproduces epidemic dynamics.

The new representation identifies high-risk groups effectively.

Abstract

The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and contacts. This deluge of data has the potential to revolutionize the computational efforts aimed at simulating scenarios and designing containment strategies. However, the integration of detailed data sources yields models that are less transparent and general. Hence, given a specific disease model, it is crucial to assess which representations of the raw data strike the best balance between simplicity and detail. We consider high-resolution data on the face-to-face interactions of individuals in a hospital ward, obtained by using wearable proximity sensors. We simulate the spread of a disease in this community by using an SEIR model on top of different mathematical representations of the contact patterns. We show that a contact matrix that only contains average contact durations fails to reproduce the size of the epidemic obtained with the high-resolution contact data and also to identify the most at-risk classes. We introduce a contact matrix of probability distributions that takes into account the heterogeneity of contact durations between (and within) classes of individuals, and we show that this representation yields a good approximation of the epidemic spreading properties obtained by using the high-resolution data. Our results mark a step towards the definition of synopses of high-resolution dynamic contact networks, providing a compact representation of contact patterns that can correctly inform computational models designed to discover risk groups and evaluate containment policies. We show that this novel kind of representation can preserve in simulation quantitative features of the epidemics that are crucial for their study and management.