Targeted Social Mobilisation in a Global Manhunt

TL;DR

This paper analyzes social mobilization during a time-critical global manhunt, demonstrating that people can effectively target their recruitment efforts even under severe time constraints, with about one-third of messages being targeted.

Contribution

It introduces an analytical model to quantify targeted recruitment in social mobilization and provides empirical evidence of targeted behavior at short timescales during a real-world event.

Findings

Approximately 1 in 3 messages were targeted during the most urgent phase.

People can effectively target their recruitment even under high time pressure.

The study offers insights for designing viral incentive schemes for rapid mobilization.

Abstract

Social mobilization, the ability to mobilize large numbers of people via social networks to achieve highly distributed tasks, has received significant attention in recent times. This growing capability, facilitated by modern communication technology, is highly relevant to endeavors which require the search for individuals that posses rare information or skill, such as finding medical doctors during disasters, or searching for missing people. An open question remains, as to whether in time-critical situations, people are able to recruit in a targeted manner, or whether they resort to so-called blind search, recruiting as many acquaintances as possible via broadcast communication. To explore this question, we examine data from our recent success in the U.S. State Department's Tag Challenge, which required locating and photographing 5 target persons in 5 different cities in the United States and Europe in less than 12 hours, based only on a single mug-shot. We find that people are able to consistently route information in a targeted fashion even under increasing time pressure. We derive an analytical model for global mobilization and use it to quantify the extent to which people were targeting others during recruitment. Our model estimates that approximately 1 in 3 messages were of targeted fashion during the most time-sensitive period of the challenge.This is a novel observation at such short temporal scales, and calls for opportunities for devising viral incentive schemes that provide distance- or time-sensitive rewards to approach the target geography more rapidly, with applications in multiple areas from emergency preparedness, to political mobilization.