Accuracy assessment of the UT1 prediction method based on 100-year series analysis

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new highly accurate method for predicting UT1 and Pole coordinates, utilizing a 100-year data series and a polyharmonic model combined with autoregression, outperforming existing IERS predictions.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel prediction method based on long-term data analysis and polyharmonic modeling, achieving improved accuracy over current standards.

Findings

The method yields better accuracy at various prediction lengths.

It outperforms IERS predictions in real-time UT1 forecasts.

The approach effectively models Earth rotation parameter variations.

Abstract

A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole coordinates. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the variations of the Earth rotation parameters using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. In this presentation, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions computed making use of this method in 2006-2010 with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths.