Combining Uncertain Estimates

TL;DR

This paper addresses how to effectively combine uncertain and conflicting estimates in expert systems by defining functions that determine estimates and their uncertainties, ensuring reliable decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method for representing and combining uncertain estimates that satisfies a comprehensive set of desirable properties.

Findings

Proposes a method satisfying key properties for combining estimates

Provides a formal framework for representing uncertainty in expert systems

Enhances decision-making reliability with improved estimate aggregation

Abstract

In a real expert system, one may have unreliable, unconfident, conflicting estimates of the value for a particular parameter. It is important for decision making that the information present in this aggregate somehow find its way into use. We cast the problem of representing and combining uncertain estimates as selection of two kinds of functions, one to determine an estimate, the other its uncertainty. The paper includes a long list of properties that such functions should satisfy, and it presents one method that satisfies them.