Computing Reference Classes

TL;DR

This paper examines the role of reference classes in evidential reasoning, discusses implementations of Kyburg's rules, and evaluates the balance between system complexity, computational feasibility, and philosophical considerations.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed analysis of the necessary components and computational aspects of Kyburg's reference class system.

Findings

Analyzes the use of reference classes in evidence interpretation

Evaluates the computational feasibility of Kyburg's rules

Discusses philosophical implications of the system

Abstract

For any system with limited statistical knowledge, the combination of evidence and the interpretation of sampling information require the determination of the right reference class (or of an adequate one). The present note (1) discusses the use of reference classes in evidential reasoning, and (2) discusses implementations of Kyburg's rules for reference classes. This paper contributes the first frank discussion of how much of Kyburg's system is needed to be powerful, how much can be computed effectively, and how much is philosophical fat.