The detectability of habitable exomoons with Kepler

TL;DR

This study assesses the potential to detect habitable exomoons around M-dwarf stars using Kepler data, focusing on transit timing variations and durations, and finds promising detection prospects especially for certain planet-moon configurations.

Contribution

It demonstrates that Kepler-class photometry can detect habitable exomoons via TTV and TDV signals, highlighting the importance of phase correlation analysis and effects of stellar noise.

Findings

Detectable TTV and TDV signals are possible for habitable exomoons around M-dwarfs.

Correlation signatures >0.7 can serve as convincing exomoon indicators.

Detection likelihood decreases with stellar noise but remains feasible for certain planet-moon sizes.

Abstract

In this paper, the detectability of habitable exomoons orbiting around giant planets in M-dwarf systems using Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) and Transit Timing Durations (TDVs) with Kepler-class photometry is investigated. Light curves of systems with various configurations were simulated around M-dwarf hosts of mass 0.5 Msun and radius 0.55 Rsun. Jupiter-like giant planets which offer the best potential for hosting habitable exomoons were considered with rocky super-Earth-mass moons. The detectability is measured by using the phase-correlation between TTV and TDV signals. Since the TDV signal is typically weaker than the TTV signal, confirmation of an exomoon detection will depend on being able to detect a TDV signal. We find that exomoons around planets orbiting within the habitable zone of an M-dwarf host star can produce both detectable TTV and TDV signatures with Kepler-class photometry. While aliasing between the planet period and moon period may hinder exomoon detection, we also find some strong correlation signatures in our simulation (eg. correlation: >0.7) which would provide convincing exomoon signatures. With the addition of red noise stellar variability, correlations generally weaken. However simulated examples with planet masses less than around 25 Mearth, moons of mass 8-10 Mearth and specific values of planet and moon periods still yield detectable correlation in 25-50% of cases. Our simulation indicates that Kepler provides one of the best available opportunities for exomoon detection.