Rational Nonmonotonic Reasoning

TL;DR

This paper presents a rational approach to nonmonotonic reasoning using possible-worlds semantics, decision theory, and probability logic, framing tentative conclusions as bets rather than assertions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel interpretation of nonmonotonic reasoning based on decision theory and probability logic, emphasizing rationality and soundness.

Findings

Provides a possible-worlds interpretation of nonmonotonic reasoning

Frames tentative conclusions as decisions to bet, not assertions

Ensures the system's rationality and soundness

Abstract

Nonmonotonic reasoning is a pattern of reasoning that allows an agent to make and retract (tentative) conclusions from inconclusive evidence. This paper gives a possible-worlds interpretation of the nonmonotonic reasoning problem based on standard decision theory and the emerging probability logic. The system's central principle is that a tentative conclusion is a decision to make a bet, not an assertion of fact. The system is rational, and as sound as the proof theory of its underlying probability log.