Exploration of the local solar neighborhood I: Fixed number of probes

TL;DR

This study models interstellar exploration of the local neighborhood using a fixed number of probes with simulated annealing, analyzing how design choices affect exploration time and success rates.

Contribution

It introduces a numerical simulation framework for exploring local interstellar space with fixed probes, considering various design parameters and their impact.

Findings

Higher probe speeds reduce exploration time.

Increasing the number of probes decreases total exploration duration.

Success probability improvements have diminishing returns.

Abstract

Previous work in studying interstellar exploration by one or several probes has focused primarily either on engineering models for a spacecraft targeting a single star system, or large-scale simulations to ascertain the time required for a civilization to completely explore the Milky Way galaxy. In this paper, a simulated annealing algorithm is used to numerically model the exploration of the local interstellar neighborhood (i.e. on the order of ten parsecs of the Solar System) by a fixed number of probes launched from the Solar System; these simulations use the observed masses, positions and spectral classes of targeted stars. Each probe visits a pre-determined list of target systems, maintains a constant cruise speed, and only changes direction from gravitational deflection at each target. From these simulations, it is examined how varying design choices -- differing the maximum cruise speed, number of probes launched, number of target stars to be explored, and probability of avoiding catastrophic system failure per parsec -- change the completion time of the exploration program and the expected number of stars successfully visited. In addition, it is shown that improving this success probability per parsec has diminishing returns beyond a certain point. Future improvements to the model and possible implications are discussed.