Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition

TL;DR

This paper examines how megaproject promoters systematically misinform stakeholders to secure approval, concealing risks through biased cost, revenue, and impact estimates, and offers evidence-based solutions.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed analysis of the strategic misinformation practices in megaproject approval processes and proposes practical, evidence-based solutions.

Findings

Megaproject promoters often underestimate costs and environmental impacts.

Projects are approved based on overestimated revenues and economic benefits.

Concealed risks lead to highly risky projects with potential for significant overruns.

Abstract

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multibillion-dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be essential reading in its field for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians, journalists and interested citizens.