Why Do We Need Foundations for Modelling Uncertainties?
Henry E. Kyburg Jr
TL;DR
This paper emphasizes the importance of establishing solid theoretical foundations for modeling uncertainties to ensure reliable and robust systems, highlighting the risks of weak or unverified bases.
Contribution
It advocates for rigorous foundational principles in uncertainty modeling, addressing the need for certifiable and durable frameworks.
Findings
Highlights risks of weak foundations in uncertainty models
Calls for rigorous, certifiable modeling frameworks
Emphasizes long-term reliability of uncertainty foundations
Abstract
Surely we want solid foundations. What kind of castle can we build on sand? What is the point of devoting effort to balconies and minarets, if the foundation may be so weak as to allow the structure to collapse of its own weight? We want our foundations set on bedrock, designed to last for generations. Who would want an architect who cannot certify the soundness of the foundations of his buildings?
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Taxonomy
TopicsMulti-Criteria Decision Making · Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design