A Modification to Evidential Probability

TL;DR

This paper proposes a modification to Kyburg's Evidential Probability system that improves the strength of statistical assertions while maintaining intuitive appeal, addressing issues in selecting reference classes and intervals.

Contribution

It introduces a new scheme that enhances Kyburg's method for handling conflicting candidates without losing intuitive justification.

Findings

Stronger statistical assertions achieved

Improved handling of conflicting reference classes

Maintains intuitive appeal of the original system

Abstract

Selecting the right reference class and the right interval when faced with conflicting candidates and no possibility of establishing subset style dominance has been a problem for Kyburg's Evidential Probability system. Various methods have been proposed by Loui and Kyburg to solve this problem in a way that is both intuitively appealing and justifiable within Kyburg's framework. The scheme proposed in this paper leads to stronger statistical assertions without sacrificing too much of the intuitive appeal of Kyburg's latest proposal.