Adding a systematic uncertainty to the signal estimation in the on/off-zone measurements

TL;DR

This paper discusses incorporating systematic uncertainties into signal estimation for on/off-zone measurements, comparing a new developed method with existing approaches to improve accuracy in background estimation.

Contribution

A new statistical method is developed to include systematic uncertainties in on/off-zone measurements, enhancing the accuracy of signal significance estimation.

Findings

The new method effectively accounts for systematic uncertainties.

Comparison shows improved accuracy over existing methods.

Applicable to astrophysics and accelerator physics measurements.

Abstract

The measurements with the background estimation from an off-zone are widely used in astrophysics, accelerator physics and other areas. Usually, the expected number of the background events in the off-zone and in the on-zone is known with a limited precision. This fact should be included as a systematic uncertainty. In this note an overview of the statistical methods which estimate the range and the significance of the measured signal is done. The method which includes a systematic uncertainty is developed for the on/off-zone measurements and compared with other existing methods.